- Alok Joshi, Senior Journalist
- for Press24 News
New inflation figures have arrived. In the month of June, there has been a slight decline in the rate of increase in inflation ie the rate of inflation. This rate was 6.3% in May while it has come down to 6.26% in June. If you look at it from the point of view of the common man, it will be like a dug mountain turned out to be a mouse.
But economists and experts monitoring the functioning of the Reserve Bank are very excited by this figure. The biggest reason for this is that most of the experts feared a further sharp rise in inflation.
In the survey of different channels and newspapers or agencies, this figure was estimated to range from 6.5 to 6.9 percent. That is why this figure has come as a pleasant surprise for all of them. However, even now the rate of inflation is not between four and six percent, that is, it is still above the target set by the Reserve Bank for inflation.
That is, the news is not such that the concern of RBI on inflation should end. But most experts feel that despite the concern, the Reserve Bank will not think of increasing interest rates in the next month’s policy because this inflation is not high enough to sacrifice growth for it.
This is the opinion of those who see the condition of the economy of the country. But if we want to see the condition of your pocket, then it is important to know that while the retail inflation figure has fallen in June as compared to May, the retail inflation of food items has also increased this month and it has increased from 5.01% to 5.15%. .
What is the effect on the prices of vegetables and fruits
It is worth noting that the increase seen here is compared to the prices of a year ago. And last year, the food inflation was 9.2% in May and about nine and a half percent in June. That is, this increase is above the already high price.
After this last year, till November this figure did not come down to 9 percent, but in September and October it had reached 10.68 and 11.07%. So whatever happens now will be on top of it.
If we look within the food items, there is some decline in the inflation of cereals and the inflation rate of vegetables is negative i.e. it has gone below zero to 0.7%. This means that the prices of vegetables have come down a bit compared to the same month last year.
The inflation of milk and sugar is also very low, although these are figures before the increase in the price of milk. But on the other hand the inflation rate of 10 per cent in pulses, 11.82% in fruits, around 20 per cent in eggs and most of all edible oils at 34.78% is seen far above the danger mark.
Outside the food and drink, where the most worrying thing is visible, everyone already knew that news, but now see its effect. Health means the inflation rate of health facilities is at 7.71% and the inflation rate of fuel and electricity is at 12.68%. Whereas in Transportation and Communication this figure is at 11.56%.
Both these figures – fuel and freight inflation – are very dangerous because it works to increase the inflation of almost everything going forward.
It is not that the government is not aware of this, it is not that the government has not been warned about it. But even after this, the way in which the prices of petrol and diesel are increasing, it is not difficult to understand what will be the picture of inflation in the coming months.
And at this time the Reserve Bank cannot easily try the formula of increasing the interest rate to stop inflation because the economy, which has been hit by Corona, needs support, needs to be pushed, not to put brakes on its speed by increasing interest.
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